Forecasting

World Broadband Information Service provides broadband subscriber forecasts to 2013, covering major categories such as total national broadband subscribers; DSL, Cable and FTTX broadband subscribers; penetration and technology divided by country.

Our forecasts are derived from using both qualitative and quantitative analysis:

Qualitative: Industry opinions and value judgements are used to help in the estimation of market dynamics
Quantitative: Various statistical models are used to analyse time-series data

The underlying theory of the subscriber forecast model is based on an S-Curve methodology. The achievable penetration of the curve is derived from analysing:

Current broadband coverage and penetration
Fixed-line penetration
PC penetration
Level of competition
Regulatory factors
Operator strategies
Socio-economic indicators:
- GDP growth
- Household disposable income
- Population
- GNI per capita
- Level of urbanisation